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# Uncertainty

Uncertainty
Using Probabilities and Other Methods to deal with Uncertain Data and Knowledge ...

With , an agent typically cannot guarantee to satisfy its goals, and even trying to maximize the probability of achieving a goal may not be sensible.

Uncertainty Coefficients. These are indices of stochastic dependence; ...

_rule r1
if e1 is high ( affirms 3.20; denies 0.895 ) and e2 is high ( affirms 9.00; denies 0.895 ) then h is high .

3 Uncertainty management in rule-based expert systems 55

3.1 Introduction, or what is uncertainty? 55 ...

has presented a difficult obstacle in artificial intelligence. Bayesian learning outlines a mathematically solid method for dealing with based upon Bayes' Theorem.

Uncertainty Analysis and Other Inference Tools for Complex Computer Codes. Anthony O'Hagan, Marc C. Kennedy and Jeremy E. Oakley
v - d - e
Statistics ...

Controlling : Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds
Book by Dr Magda Osman
Discovery Channel ...

Uncertainty - In the context of expert systems, uncertainty refers to a value that cannot be determined during a consultation. Many expert systems can accommodate uncertainty.

[19] "Fuzzy Sets, , and Information", by G.J. Klir and T.A. Folger (Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1988).
[20] "Industrial Applications of Fuzzy Control" ed. M. Sugeno (North-Holland, New York, 1985).

reasoning under uncertainty reasoning about situations, e.g. in medical diagnosis, in which good or complete data is not available, ...

Management of Imprecision and : Data and knowledgebases in many typical AI problems, such as reasoning and planning, are often contaminated with various forms of incompleteness.

Can also be used to make decisions where uncertainty occurs (fuzzy control). This is a form of non-Aristotelian logic (see general semantics).

A modeling technique that provides a mathematically sound formalism for representing and reasoning about , imprecision, or unpredictability in our knowledge.

Many otherwise excellent colleagues have objected that nanotechnology might be impractical because of quantum uncertainty.

In AI search, there are computational limits and due to the opponent's move as in two-players games. So it is wise to have search and execution interleaved with each search determining only the next move to be made.

Sophisticated methods for reasoning about uncertainty and for coping with incomplete knowledge have led to more robust diagnostic and planning systems.

In this fragment, start_probability refers to your about which state the HMM is in when your friend first calls you (all you know is that it tends to be rainy on average).

Casti also provides an excellent introduction to the problems inherent in predicting weather, the stock market, and other complex phenomena in his book ``Complexification'' (Harper Collins, 1994) and its predecessor ``Searching for Uncertainty: ...

Knowing statistics in your everyday life will help the average business person make better decisions by allowing them to figure out risk and when all the facts either aren't known or can't be collected.

Although artistic appropriation is often permitted under fair use doctrines, the complexity and ambiguity of these doctrines creates an atmosphere of uncertainty among cultural practitioners.

unless exists first, there can be no information." (Campbell, p. 215-216, 254) Shannon's equation aside, the ability to invent relationships, ...

A formal framework for making logical decisions in problem areas containing risk, uncertainty and probabilities, typically employing Bayesian inference methods.
Decision tree ...

Understanding Through Simulation with XLSim
Duane Bong: Monte Carlo Simulation
Brian T. Luke: Simple Monte Carlo Simulation
Lecture Note of A One-Day Short Course in Principles of Monte Carlo Simulation ...

In other words, big amounts of data and high uncertainty, regarding the way the data is produced. Examples are stock values (Forecasting), loan risk, local weather, pattern (faces) recognition, and data mining.

that there is complete about which is the correct class. It turns out that E has a maximum value in this case.
Thus, the more uncertain the network is, the larger the error E. This is as it should be.

Second, the rules had to reflect the uncertainty called certainty factors which seemed (at the time) to fit well with how doctors assessed the impact of evidence on the diagnosis ' (Russel & Norvig, 2003).